2032 Brisbane solution – Creating a healthy ageing legacy?

Queensland is getting older, pressure on our hospitals is growing, and too many older people are already finding themselves stuck in hospital when they are ready to leave. NSA believes Brisbane 2032 gives Queensland a rare opportunity to plan part of the solution now.

When we think about the Brisbane 2023 Olympic and Paralympic Games, most of us probably picture athletes, stadiums and the excitement of hosting one of the world’s biggest sporting events. At NSA, we are also thinking about what happens after the athletes go home. 

The infrastructure Queensland builds for 2032 will be with us for decades. Over those same decades, Queensland's population will be older, and demand for health and care services will be greater. So we think this question is worth asking now: 

Could part of Brisbane 2032's post-Games infrastructure become a Healthy Ageing Precinct that helps older Queenslanders move more effectively between hospital, rehabilitation, transition care, aged care and palliative care? 

NSA believes the evidence is strong enough to find out.

It started with a problem older Australians told us about

This proposal didn't come out of nowhere.

Earlier this year, NSA released Delayed Discharge from Hospital: Older Australians' experiences & perspectives, examining what happens when an older person is medically ready to leave hospital but cannot safely do so because the care or support they need isn't available.

We found there is no single cause. Respondents described waiting for residential aged care, home care services, aged care assessments and reassessments, respite and other support. Among those who had experienced delayed discharge themselves, or through someone close to them, 35% said having no one available to support them at home was part of the reason.

That tells us something important. Getting an older person out of hospital isn't simply about finding another bed. It's about having the right care, in the right place, at the right time.

Queensland Government figures demonstrate the scale of the broader challenge. More than 1,000 older patients are currently experiencing delayed discharge in Queensland, increasing to more than 1,500 when people in interim care beds are included. The Government identifies a lack of available residential aged care places as the leading discharge barrier for older patients in acute hospital beds, affecting 73% of cases.

Dementia and complex care make the challenge even harder

Our research also highlighted how much more difficult discharge becomes when an older person has complex care needs, particularly people living with dementia. That matters when we look at where Queensland is heading.

This matters as we consider Queensland’s future health needs.

Queensland Health modelling estimates that between 2022–23 and 2032–33, hospitalisations involving dementia could increase by 81.5%. Over the same period, hospital episodes classified as waiting for aged-care placement are estimated to increase by 74.4%, from around 9,000 to around 16,000.

These figures need to be understood correctly. Queensland Health is clear that they are based on a set of assumptions and are not intended as exact forecasts. The figures show what could happen if those assumptions hold and point in a clear direction: future infrastructure planning must respond not just to an ageing population, but to older people with higher and more complex care needs.

That is why NSA believes future infrastructure planning needs to respond not just to an ageing population, but to older people with higher and more complex care needs.

The new Intergenerational Report reinforces the need to plan ahead

The timing couldn't be more relevant. On 21 September, the Australian Government released its 2026 Intergenerational Report, which looks ahead to 2065–66 to help shape public policy over the next 40 years. It names "ageing and the care economy" as one of five major transitions that will shape Australia over that period.

Treasury says Australia's population is ageing faster, driven by falling fertility rates, and the shift is substantial. About 625,000 Australians are currently aged 85 and over. By 2065–66, that number is projected to reach around 1.9 million – roughly three times today's figure.

More demand for care means more people to provide it. Health care and social assistance already employs around 2.4 million Australians, and employment in the sector is projected to grow by another 23% by 2035.

For NSA, the message is simple: we need to plan the infrastructure and services for an older Australia before the demand arrives.

In Queensland, that future is already coming into view

In 2022–23, Queensland had 629,567 people aged 70 and over, including 99,707 aged 85 and over. By 2032–33, Queensland Health projects around 911,451 Queenslanders aged 70 and over, including more than 183,000 aged 85 and over. That's an increase of around 45% in the 70-plus population in a single decade.

These are our parents, partners and friends – and eventually, many of us.

Hospital demand is expected to grow alongside them. Queensland Health recorded 958,425 hospitalisations involving people aged 70 and over in 2022–23, and projects 1.378 million by 2032–33, almost 420,000 additional hospital episodes.

As more Baby Boomers move into age groups with higher hospitalisation rates, Queensland Health estimates the state could face around 20 years of high hospital demand.

These figures don't tell government exactly what to build. They tell us why planning for an ageing Queensland matters now. 

That's where Brisbane 2032 comes in

The Queensland Government is currently planning the legacy of the Victoria Park Precinct, including upgrades to the Brisbane Showgrounds that incorporate the future Brisbane Athletes Village, which the Government says will later become housing.  

NSA sees an opportunity. We propose that the Queensland Government investigate whether part of the infrastructure planned for the post-Games precinct could support a Healthy Ageing Precinct.

This wouldn't be an enormous aged care facility, and we're not suggesting one precinct could solve Queensland's delayed discharge problem. Instead, think about the journey an older person may need to make after becoming seriously unwell, from acute hospital care, to rehabilitation and reablement, to transition care, and then home with support or into ongoing aged care.

For people with higher needs, that pathway may also require dementia-capable services, complex clinical care, and appropriate palliative and end-of-life care.

Right now, those parts of the system don't always connect as well as they should. Brisbane 2032 gives the government a chance to test whether well-planned infrastructure can help connect them. 

Location makes the idea particularly interesting

The future Athletes Village will be at Brisbane Showgrounds at Bowen Hills, a short distance from the established Herston Health Precinct and Surgical, Treatment and Rehabilitation Service (STARS). 

In fact, Metro North Health lists the Brisbane Showgrounds Pavilion car park as approximately 700 metres, or a 9–10 minute walk, from STARS.  

The Herston Precinct is one of Australia’s largest integrated health precincts and is anchored by the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, alongside health, research, education and clinical services.

NSA isn't proposing to duplicate what Herston already does. The opportunity is to explore how post-Games infrastructure at Bowen Hills could complement and connect with it:

• Could an older person move more effectively from acute hospital treatment to specialist rehabilitation and then to transition care or another appropriate care environment?

• Could purpose-planned infrastructure provide additional pathways for people who are medically ready to leave hospital but aren't yet able to return home?

• Could some services be designed specifically with dementia and other complex care needs in mind?

• And could all of this help free acute hospital capacity for people who genuinely need hospital treatment?

We need to ask these questions before the post-Games infrastructure is locked in.

We already know different pathways can make a difference

There's evidence from Queensland itself. Metro North Health's OPEN Long Stay Service partnered with a residential aged care home to provide respite places for older people experiencing delayed discharge.

Clinical Excellence Queensland reports that the service discharged 86 extended-stay patients into residential aged care respite, diverting 3,546 occupied hospital bed days – valued at $5.3 million in released acute capacity. Of those respite residents, 62.8% went on to secure permanent residential aged care, and 14% returned home.

That doesn't mean a Healthy Ageing Precinct would produce identical results. But it shows that when health and aged care providers work together to create a new pathway, older people can move out of acute hospital and into more appropriate care.

As Clinical Excellence Queensland notes, tackling delayed discharge requires a coordinated, system-wide approach, not simply shifting the problem from one part of the system to another. That principle sits at the heart of NSA's proposal.

Other governments are starting to think differently too

South Australia's 2026–27 State Budget provides $3 million over two years to develop a business case for transforming the current Women's and Children's Hospital site into a dedicated health and aged care precinct. The SA Government expects the precinct to include a mix of public and private services and 600 aged care beds.

Brisbane is different, and NSA isn't suggesting Queensland simply copy South Australia. But the broader lesson holds: better connections between hospitals and non-acute care give older people another way forward once they no longer need acute treatment.

What is NSA proposing?

NSA is asking the Queensland Government to consider a Healthy Ageing Precinct as part of the post-Games legacy of the Brisbane Athletes Village and the wider Victoria Park Precinct.

The concept would better connect health, rehabilitation and reablement, transition care and community support, with particular attention to people living with dementia and other complex needs, and to appropriate palliative and end-of-life care.

We're not proposing a set number of beds or places, or prescribing exactly how the precinct should operate. The Queensland and Australian Governments, health and aged care providers, and other stakeholders would need to work through those details.

What matters is that healthy ageing is considered from the outset – not retrofitted after the infrastructure and its long-term uses have already been decided.

The Games will last a few weeks. The infrastructure will serve Queenslanders for generations. NSA believes Brisbane 2032 is a rare opportunity to plan for the older Queensland that's already on its way. A Healthy Ageing Precinct deserves a place in that plan, and is one solution that should be considered as part of that bigger picture.