There’s a lot of talk about Australia’s ageing population, and many discussions are framed around that being a crisis or an opportunity. National Seniors believes in the latter. An ageing population offers an opportunity to take advantage of a community that is the healthiest, most dynamic, best educated and resourced of any older age group in our history.

An important example of our support for older people is our policy that government stop penalising age pensioners from contributing more to society and the workforce by allowing them to work full time without losing pension payments.

New population projections have better measured the extent of the growth of people coming to ‘age’ over the next 20 years. Projections by The Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), provide the nation with an incentive to develop fit-for-purpose policies and infrastructure.

As you will read, the past two years of COVID-19 have changed previous assumptions and projections.

These findings will surprise you. Interestingly, the growth of those aged 85-plus occurs against the backdrop of the pandemic, which was reported to have hit this age group particularly hard.

CEPAR’s figures for 2021-2024 have a wow factor – consider the percentages! What do you think?

• Australia’s population will increase from 25.7 million in 2021 to 32.0 million by 2041.

• In the absence of COVID-19, the 2021 population would likely have been about 26.1 million and the projected 2041 population about 1 million higher than the 2041 projection.

• Those aged 65-plus will grow by 54% to 6.66 million.

• Those 85-plus will increase by 140% to 1.28 million.

• Those aged 100-plus will grow at an even faster rate: by 200% to 15,900. 

CEPAR says the rapid increase in the 85-plus population is due to the sheer number of births from previous decades (Baby Boomer years) and a decline in mortality.

CEPAR compiled the new figures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which fundamentally altered previous ageing projections and led to the new assessment.

The pandemic affected the vital inputs into population and ageing - fertility, mortality and migration.

Overseas migration declined dramatically. In 2018-19 migration totalled 241,000; by 2020-21, it had fallen to 88,000 (i.e., more people were emigrating than immigrating). This was the first negative migration balance recorded since the 1940s.

For the first two years of the pandemic, deaths were limited, in contrast to the devastating rise in mortality in many other countries.

In fact, the available data indicates that Australian mortality during the 2020 calendar year was lower than expected. However, recent preliminary mortality data show above-average numbers of deaths during much of 2021 and a surge in deaths in early 2022.

The effect of COVID-19 on fertility occurred against a backdrop of more than a decade of gradually declining fertility rates.

However, data indicates a temporary dip in conceptions at the start of the pandemic and, therefore lower fertility in late 2020. This was followed by a modest and short-term recovery and a resumption of lower fertility most recently.

CEPAR says the ongoing impacts of COVID-19 on fertility, mortality, and migration present challenges for population projections.

“Because global pandemics are not a common occurrence, we have little past data and theory with which to inform assumptions about the future of fertility, mortality, and migration,” the report says.

For further reading: CEPAR