Aged care under pressure

A sweeping new report from FT Consulting confirms what many families have been feeling for years. Australia’s aged care system is under immense pressure – and the strain is only set to intensify, despite new reforms. 

A system close to breaking point? 

Australia’s residential aged care facilities are operating with virtually no spare capacity. 

According to the December 2024 Aged Care Financial Performance Survey, national aged care occupancy has reached 94%. That might seem to imply spare beds, but many of those beds are unavailable due to staff shortages, refurbishments, or being located in regions where demand is low and travel distances are high. 

While need grows rapidly, supply has barely shifted. Between 2020 and 2025, the number of operational aged care places increased by just 3%. Over the same period, the population of Australians aged over 85 – the group most likely to require residential aged care – grew by more than 12%. 

Residential places per 1,000 people aged 70 and over have fallen from 76 to 67 in five years.  

Building new facilities is not a simple fix but is sorely needed. Development approvals can take five months, followed by six to 12 months of design work. Construction itself may run from 18 months for a small facility to six years for a larger one.  

Rising construction costs, tight capital markets, workforce shortages, and regulatory complexity all combine to slow growth even further. 

Home care: another long queue 

Staying at home for as long as possible is the strong preference of many older Australians. Yet the FT Consulting report found that older people wait a median of 297 days – almost nine months – for their approved level of home care. 

National Seniors Australia (NSA) has called for the wait time for Support at Home to be reduced to three months by 1 Jan 2027.  

But the FTI report notes that as of March 2025, 88,000 older Australians were still waiting at their approved level, and 99% were receiving lower-level care than they had been assessed as needing. 

The result is increasing pressure on a system not built to carry such a load, particularly as the new Support at Home Program rolls out.

Hospitals fill the gap 

When aged care options are unavailable, hospitals are forced to take the strain. 

According to the report, Australians aged 65 and over make up 44% of all hospital admissions and 52% of total patient days. Those aged 85 and over represent just 2.1% of the population but account for 13% of patient days. 

Across the country, hundreds of older patients occupy hospital beds each month simply because they have nowhere else to go. Queensland reported 837 long‑stay older patients in August 2025 – up from just 272 in 2021. NSW recorded more than 1,600 aged care and NDIS patients occupying beds in July 2025, while South Australia reported 280 such cases. 

None of this is the fault of older people. They need care, but alternative settings are not available. 

The hardest years still ahead 

The report warns that Australia has yet to feel the full force of demographic change. The Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, have not yet reached the age when most people require residential aged care. That tipping point will come over the next decade. 

Dementia, a major driver of high‑needs care, is projected to nearly double in prevalence by 2054 in most states. Western Australia is expected to see cases rise from 42,000 today to 87,000 – a 107% increase. 

Both residential and home care systems will soon need to support a much larger number of people with far more complex medical and behavioural needs. 

Right now, the system is not ready. 

If you are planning ahead for aged care for yourself or a family member, start early. To stay up to date, join NSA’s Your Care, Your Rights campaign here.