More than Forrest Gump’s “life is like a box of chocolates”, a visit to the petrol station is like a game of chance: you can’t be sure what price comes down the pump on any day. Of course, it’s usually going up.

After something of a price drop last quarter, petrol prices across the nation have resumed their relentless upward spiral and experts warn there’s no sign of relief.

The price of crude oil, which is refined into products such as petrol, is at a six-month high. Steel yourself for further price hikes because there’s a two to six-week lag between global crude oil prices and what you pay at the pump.

Mark McKenzie, CEO of the Australasian Convenience and Petroleum Marketers Association (ACAPMA), says the petrol price cycle is in its upward phase and may not come down as is usually the case.

“What’s newsworthy about where we are now is we’ve just started going through the upward phase, so there’s a significant difference between the stations discounting and the stations hiking,” Mr McKenzie said.

International events, including instability in the Middle East, disrupting supply are largely to blame. Combined with this is the fact that the oil-producing nations are trimming production to restrict the amount of oil in the market.

Perversely, more positive global factors – including possible interest rate cuts in the United States, which would boost many economies, and rosier data about the economy of China – could push up prices by increasing the demand for fuel. 

Motorists hold off buying fuel when the cycle is up and wait for a price drop but NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury has described the normal price cycle as “chaotic” and warns we can expect the cycle not to dip for six months.

The motoring body found that price cycles have got longer over the past five years, with prices taking far longer to go down than to increase. So, we’re paying more for longer.

The motoring organisation’s analysis of 51 price cycles in Sydney since January 2019 found motorists have been exposed to some of the highest gross margins – the gap between the wholesale and retail price – for regular unleaded on record.

Since January 2019, prices across 51 price cycles fell by only 1.0 cents per litre per day yet rose at more than twice the daily rate at 2.3 cents per litre.

It took the average price cycle in Sydney 26 days to fall from the top to the bottom of the cycle yet would race to the top of the cycle from the bottom in only 12 days.

Longer price cycles in Sydney, Brisbane, and Melbourne have been a major contributing factor to Australia’s largest cities being among the most expensive.

NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury said the fact that Brisbane margins in 2024 were almost three times higher than Perth’s, and Sydney’s more than double, highlighted the additional cost-of-living pressure felt by motorists in Australia’s largest capital cities.

“The NRMA has been concerned about families and businesses being over-exposed to higher petrol prices and the inflationary impact this has on our economy is clear. It doesn’t have to be this way.”